I’m not a specialist in these matters, by no means, but I am used to processing and analysing data (numbers) and there was a recent discrepancy between ADP and NFP that I could not make add up. When I looked at those data in a bit more detail, I remained puzzled. It all struck me as odd.

Something was off.

(It’s possible that the NFP lags the ADP, so that the ADP predicts the future month’s NFP data rather than the same month.)

If I put myself in the shoes of business owners, then with the tariff uncertainties, I would hold off on hiring and replacing staff.

(I might for example have to make the decision to start marketing to a different market segment, and sell less, but at higher prices and with fewer employees.)

(With regard to USD/JPY, it had already been suggested that the recent blip up could be just a corrective move related to the overcrowding in dollar shorts. Never follow one person’s opinion. Keep everyone’s in mind and observe what happens.)