Logic says that if lots of people expect something to go up, then they will start buying, with the plan to cash out later when the something goes up. That then drives up its price in advance.

Sometimes that is clearly the case.

However, you can also see this happening when something is expected to go down. Then the price gets jacked up so that the shorts when the thing that is expected to go down goes down – in this case, the US dollar – are able to make a lot more money.

We’ll see which is which. Will I have the patience?

Complication: Trump has ended traditional bullish/bearish predictions for the dollar, but old habits die hard and this is not global but US. (His tariff circus kicked the dollar off its throne as a safe currency, but there’s been some rebound.) The yields story isn’t what it used to be either, relative to the dollar.

(I understand that yields v inflation is what’s currently driving the gold price. Feels like bad news for the dollar to me, but I don’t know much at all about this stuff and that is an understatement.)